Bennett Kleinberg
Department of Security and Crime Science Dawes Centre for Future Crime University College London
De drie fases van een pump-and-dump operatie (Kamps & Kleinberg, 2018)
What could go wrong?
The recent explosion of nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies in a largely unregulated environment has greatly expanded the scope for abuse.
When the tweet was first broadcast at around 3 p.m. ET, GVT was bought and sold on the market at $30.
When the tweet was first broadcast at around 3 p.m. ET, GVT was bought and sold on the market at $30.
By 3:04, it was at $45, and trading volume had doubled.
When the tweet was first broadcast at around 3 p.m. ET, GVT was bought and sold on the market at $30.
By 3:04, it was at $45, and trading volume had doubled.
But by 3:19, GVT’s price had fallen back to $30.29.
But by 3:19, GVT’s price had fallen back to $30.29.
The smart money — the early money — had gotten out, leaving the late money holding a bag of now-diminished value.
| Oude uitdagingen | Nieuwe uitdagingen |
|---|---|
| lage market cap | kortere tijd (bijna real-time) |
| gebrek aan informatie | grotere verspreiding van misinformatie |
| zeer lage price | nieuwe vormen van geruchten |
Data + code https://osf.io/827wd/
Conditional local point anomaly detection
| Balanced parameters | |
|---|---|
| Estimation window | 12h |
| Volume increase | 300% |
| Price increase | 5% |
| Price drop | 1.00 SD |
| Alleged pumps | 2150 |
| Pump-and-dumps | 1617 |
| Crypto/crypto | 97.0% |
| Low market cap | 81.8% |
zie Kamps & Kleinberg, 2018; Xu & Livshits, 2018; Hamrick et al., 2018; Li et al., 2018
Circulair probleem.
Interdisciplinary challenge!
Realistisch: ground truth data + detectie
Realistisch: ground truth data + detectie
Ja Misschien Nee
Wat weten wij niet?
En wat zijn de cryptofraude uitdagingen voor de toekomst?
10-11 juni, cryptofraude “sandpit” in Londen
Promovendi + post-docs: Josh Kamps, Florian Hetzel, Eray Akartuna